By Kevin E. Noonan --
Steven Burrill, President and CEO of Burrill & Co., unveiled his company's "State of the Biotechnology Industry" report on Wednesday at BIO 2008 in San Diego. Mr. Burrill (below) described developments globally that he anticipates will occur by 2020 and how those changes will impact the industry.
Mr. Burrill's vision is described on the company website as being "furutistic," but he contends these are just extensions of technology and social trends existing in the present day. For example, he believes that medicine will change focus from passively waiting for disease or disability to appear for doctors to treat, to an extensive (and invasive) medical monitoring system, where medical sensors and diagnostics will become part of the daily routine. Rather than having "family doctors," primary medical care in 2020 will be provided by "wellness centers" staffed by nurse practitioners relying on both diagnostic technology and personal medicine. Individuals will carry a card, or have implanted a chip, detailing their personal genetic variations relevant to disease predispositions and drug susceptibilities/sensitivities, and their diagnosis will be determined while they shop in the rest of the store. Serious diseases (heart disease, cancer) will be treated in specialized medical centers by specialist medical doctors and their staff. And on a daily basis the emphasis will be on medical monitoring and surveillance with regard to drug treatment compliance and "lifestyle" choices such as smoking, alcohol consumption and diet.
Mr. Burrill responded to challenges to his vision by noting that the technology for a good deal of his schema already exists, and that current economic conditions favor trending in this direction. He also noted that the current healthcare system will experience extreme financial stressors by as early as 2013, the date where the amount of Medicare revenues from payroll taxes will be exceeded by expect expenditures, and that a great deal of the current and expected costs on the healthcare system are either outright waste or are devoted to aspects of the system (such as administrative and reimbursement costs) that are not directly related to delivering care. Importantly for his audience, he also mentioned that while the majority of Americans believe that drug costs account for 60% of overall healthcare costs in the U.S., the actual number is just 12%, and that this misconception has significant political consequences for the industry (including his acknowledgement that strong trend for generic drugs can be expected to continue if not accelerate).
The other trend Mr. Burrill described is the ascendancy of India and China as centers of research and development in the biotech/pharma industry. Compelled by a growing middle class population and its attendant demands for a "more and better" life, these governments will continue the present trend of supporting development of "home grown" biotech and pharma industries. Finally, he projected that agricultural biotechnology will play an increased role in addressing the world food crisis, but also used the AgBio industry as an example of how the social and political aspects of introducing biotechnology solutions must be addressed for the industry to remain successful.
The complete report can be purchased from Burrill & Co. ($430 + tax); sales at BIO 2008 include a CD-ROM of Mr. Burrill's presentation slides.
Almost invariably, people who try to predict the future over-estimate the changes that will occur in the short term (less than 25 years) while underestimating changes on the really long scale (300 years+). I’m still waiting for flying cars to become cheap and abundant…
Posted by: Brian Lynch | June 20, 2008 at 10:46 AM